As noted in Elections to the German Bundestag, this year's
parliamentary election in Germany will be held under a reformed electoral
system that introduces adjustment seats, in order to guarantee a fully
proportional allocation of Bundestag seats among qualifying parties.
While the recently enacted reform does not change the basic functioning of
Germany's Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system (described
here), it introduces a new, two-tier mechanism
for the nationwide distribution of Bundestag mandates. In the first stage,
a non-binding allocation of seats among qualifying parties is carried out
in each one of Germany's sixteen Länder by the Sainte-Laguë/Schepers
method of PR. However, if a party secures more constituency seats in the
first vote of a particular Land than the number of seats it would be entitled
to according to the result of the second vote, it keeps the extra seats at
this stage.
(Under Sainte-Laguë/Schepers, the distribution of seats is obtained
by dividing party votes by a divisor or quota, such that the sum of party
seats - the resulting quotients, with fractions greater than 0.5 rounded
up to the next whole number - will be equal to the total number of seats
to be filled.)
Had the new mechanism been in place for the 2009 Bundestag election, and
had voters cast their ballots in the same manner, the initial allocation
of seats would have stood as follows:
|
Land |
|
|
Seats |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SPD |
|
|
CDU |
|
|
CSU |
|
|
GRÜNE |
|
|
FDP |
|
|
DIE
LINKE |
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
Schleswig-Holstein |
|
|
6 |
|
|
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
24 |
|
|
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern |
|
|
3 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
15 |
|
|
Hamburg |
|
|
3 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
12 |
|
|
Niedersachsen |
|
|
19 |
|
|
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
7 |
|
|
8 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
60 |
|
|
Bremen |
|
|
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
Brandenburg |
|
|
6 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
20 |
|
|
Sachsen-Anhalt |
|
|
3 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
18 |
|
|
Berlin |
|
|
5 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
3 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
24 |
|
|
Nordrhein-Westfalen |
|
|
38 |
|
|
45 |
|
|
|
|
|
14 |
|
|
20 |
|
|
11 |
|
|
128 |
|
|
Sachsen |
|
|
5 |
|
|
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
8 |
|
|
36 |
|
|
Hessen |
|
|
12 |
|
|
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
7 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
43 |
|
|
Thüringen |
|
|
3 |
|
|
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
19 |
|
|
Rheinland-Pfalz |
|
|
8 |
|
|
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
3 |
|
|
32 |
|
|
Bayern |
|
|
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
45 |
|
|
11 |
|
|
14 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
93 |
|
|
Baden-Württemberg |
|
|
16 |
|
|
37 |
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
|
|
15 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
85 |
|
|
Saarland |
|
|
2 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
Total |
|
|
148 |
|
|
195 |
|
|
45 |
|
|
69 |
|
|
91 |
|
|
76 |
|
|
624 |
|
|
The total number of seats won by each one of the six qualifying parties is
the minimum number of mandates the party would be entitled to receive at
the federal level. The number of second votes won by each qualifying party
would then be divided by its corresponding seat total from the preceding
allocation, minus 0.5:
|
SPD: |
|
9,990,488
147.5 |
= |
67,732 |
|
CDU: |
|
11,828,277
194.5 |
= |
60,813 |
|
|
|
CSU: |
|
2,830,238
44.5 |
= |
63,600 |
|
GRÜNE: |
|
4,643,272
68.5 |
= |
67,784 |
|
FDP: |
|
6,316,080
90.5 |
= |
69,790 |
|
DIE LINKE: |
|
5,155,933
75.5 |
= |
68,290 |
The votes-to-seats minus 0.5 quotients show a significant deviation from
full proportionality - with quotients ranging from a low of 60,813 for CDU
to a high of 69,790 for FDP - largely due to the allocation of twenty-six
overhang mandates (22 CDU, 3 CSU and one SPD). The distribution of seats
on a Land-by-Land basis would have also introduced a distorting
effect, but it would have been comparatively minuscule: had overhang seats
been disregarded at this stage, the quotients would have fluctuated between
67,784 and 69,790.
At any rate, in the second stage the number of second votes polled by each
one of the qualifying parties would have been divided by the smallest of
the aforementioned quotients, with remainders larger than 0.5 rounded up
to the next whole number, to obtain the definitive nationwide distribution
of Bundestag seats:
|
SPD: |
|
9,990,488
60,813 |
= |
164.2821107 |
= |
164 seats |
|
CDU: |
|
11,828,277
60,813 |
= |
194.5024419 |
= |
195 seats |
|
CSU: |
|
2,830,238
60,813 |
= |
46.5400161 |
= |
47 seats |
|
GRÜNE: |
|
4,643,272
60,813 |
= |
76.3532797 |
= |
76 seats |
|
FDP: |
|
6,316,080
60,813 |
= |
103.8606877 |
= |
104 seats |
|
DIE LINKE: |
|
5,155,933
60,813 |
= |
84.7834016 |
= |
85 seats |
This would conclude the allocation of seats at the federal level, and the
mandates obtained by each party would then be distributed among its
Land lists; the results of the initial Land-level allocation
of seats would be discarded at this point.
Under the previous electoral system, party mandates were proportionally allocated
among its Land lists, but if a Land list received fewer seats
than its corresponding number of direct mandates, it kept the overhang seats,
and the size of the Bundestag was increased accordingly. However, under the
new electoral system, the allocation of Bundestag seats at the federal level
is definitive and cannot be altered by the distribution of party mandates
at the Land level. As such, in the event one or more party Land
lists receive fewer seats than the corresponding number of constituency seats
won by the party, the allocation divisor would be increased until each one
of the party's Land lists received a number of seats equal to the
larger of its rounded quotient, or its corresponding number of direct mandates.
Nonetheless, in most cases all the Land lists of a given party secure
a proportional allocation larger than or equal to their corresponding number
of constituency seats, and in such instances the system remains essentially
unchanged from past Bundestag elections, the main difference being the actual
PR method used for the distribution of seats (d'Hondt from 1957 to 1983,
Hare/Niemeyer from 1987 to 2005, Sainte-Laguë/Schepers since 2009).
For example, the Land-level allocation of SPD mandates according to
the Sainte-Laguë/Schepers method would have produced the following results
(with a divisor of 60,541):
|
Land |
|
Votes |
|
Quotient |
|
Seats |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
Direct |
|
List |
|
|
|
Schleswig-Holstein |
|
430,739 |
|
7.114831 |
|
7 |
|
2 |
|
5 |
|
|
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern |
|
143,607 |
|
2.372062 |
|
2 |
|
0 |
|
2 |
|
|
Hamburg |
|
242,942 |
|
4.012851 |
|
4 |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
Niedersachsen |
|
1,297,940 |
|
21.439025 |
|
21 |
|
14 |
|
7 |
|
|
Bremen |
|
102,419 |
|
1.691730 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
0 |
|
|
Brandenburg |
|
348,216 |
|
5.751738 |
|
6 |
|
5 |
|
1 |
|
|
Sachsen-Anhalt |
|
202,850 |
|
3.350622 |
|
3 |
|
0 |
|
3 |
|
|
Berlin |
|
348,082 |
|
5.749525 |
|
6 |
|
2 |
|
4 |
|
|
Nordrhein-Westfalen |
|
2,678,956 |
|
44.250277 |
|
44 |
|
27 |
|
17 |
|
|
Sachsen |
|
328,753 |
|
5.430254 |
|
5 |
|
0 |
|
5 |
|
|
Hessen |
|
812,721 |
|
13.424307 |
|
13 |
|
6 |
|
7 |
|
|
Thüringen |
|
216,593 |
|
3.577625 |
|
4 |
|
0 |
|
4 |
|
|
Rheinland-Pfalz |
|
520,990 |
|
8.605573 |
|
9 |
|
2 |
|
7 |
|
|
Bayern |
|
1,120,018 |
|
18.500157 |
|
19 |
|
0 |
|
19 |
|
|
Baden-Württemberg |
|
1,051,198 |
|
17.363407 |
|
17 |
|
1 |
|
16 |
|
|
Saarland |
|
144,464 |
|
2.386218 |
|
2 |
|
0 |
|
2 |
|
|
As in past elections, any direct mandates won by a party in a particular
Land would be deducted from its proportional seat allocation. Thus,
the 27 constituency seats won by SPD in Nordrhein-Westfalen would be subtracted
from its proportional allocation of 44 seats, and the party would be awarded
seventeen list seats in that Land.
However, in the case of CDU the number of constituency seats won by the party
would exceed its Land list seat allocation in several
Länder, which would require the allocation divisor to be increased
from 60,658 to 68,400, with the following results:
|
Land |
|
Votes |
|
Quotient |
|
Seats |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
Direct |
|
List |
|
|
|
Schleswig-Holstein |
|
518,457 |
|
7.579781 |
|
9 |
|
9 |
|
0 |
|
|
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern |
|
287,481 |
|
4.202939 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
0 |
|
|
Hamburg |
|
246,667 |
|
3.606243 |
|
4 |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
Niedersachsen |
|
1,471,530 |
|
21.513596 |
|
22 |
|
16 |
|
6 |
|
|
Bremen |
|
80,964 |
|
1.183684 |
|
1 |
|
0 |
|
1 |
|
|
Brandenburg |
|
327,454 |
|
4.787339 |
|
5 |
|
1 |
|
4 |
|
|
Sachsen-Anhalt |
|
362,311 |
|
5.296944 |
|
5 |
|
4 |
|
1 |
|
|
Berlin |
|
393,180 |
|
5.748246 |
|
6 |
|
5 |
|
1 |
|
|
Nordrhein-Westfalen |
|
3,111,478 |
|
45.489444 |
|
45 |
|
37 |
|
8 |
|
|
Sachsen |
|
800,898 |
|
11.709035 |
|
16 |
|
16 |
|
0 |
|
|
Hessen |
|
1,022,822 |
|
14.953538 |
|
15 |
|
15 |
|
0 |
|
|
Thüringen |
|
383,778 |
|
5.610789 |
|
7 |
|
7 |
|
0 |
|
|
Rheinland-Pfalz |
|
767,487 |
|
11.220570 |
|
13 |
|
13 |
|
0 |
|
|
Baden-Württemberg |
|
1,874,481 |
|
27.404693 |
|
37 |
|
37 |
|
0 |
|
|
Saarland |
|
179,289 |
|
2.621184 |
|
4 |
|
4 |
|
0 |
|
|
Thus, party Land lists still retain their corresponding overhang mandates
(if any), but now these will be proportionally deducted from the party's
lists in the remaining Länder.
The final distribution of seats in the 2009 Bundestag election would have
then stood as follows:
|
Land |
|
|
Seats |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SPD |
|
|
CDU |
|
|
CSU |
|
|
GRÜNE |
|
|
FDP |
|
|
DIE
LINKE |
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
Schleswig-Holstein |
|
|
7 |
|
|
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
25 |
|
|
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern |
|
|
2 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
14 |
|
|
Hamburg |
|
|
4 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
14 |
|
|
Niedersachsen |
|
|
21 |
|
|
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
10 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
67 |
|
|
Bremen |
|
|
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
Brandenburg |
|
|
6 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
7 |
|
|
21 |
|
|
Sachsen-Anhalt |
|
|
3 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
17 |
|
|
Berlin |
|
|
6 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
3 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
26 |
|
|
Nordrhein-Westfalen |
|
|
44 |
|
|
45 |
|
|
|
|
|
16 |
|
|
23 |
|
|
13 |
|
|
141 |
|
|
Sachsen |
|
|
5 |
|
|
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
9 |
|
|
37 |
|
|
Hessen |
|
|
13 |
|
|
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
9 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
48 |
|
|
Thüringen |
|
|
4 |
|
|
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
20 |
|
|
Rheinland-Pfalz |
|
|
9 |
|
|
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
3 |
|
|
35 |
|
|
Bayern |
|
|
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
47 |
|
|
12 |
|
|
16 |
|
|
7 |
|
|
101 |
|
|
Baden-Württemberg |
|
|
17 |
|
|
37 |
|
|
|
|
|
12 |
|
|
17 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
89 |
|
|
Saarland |
|
|
2 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
Total |
|
|
164 |
|
|
195 |
|
|
47 |
|
|
76 |
|
|
104 |
|
|
85 |
|
|
671 |
|
|
While the new electoral system would have increased the size of the Bundestag
by 49 seats, to a total of 671, it would not have substantially changed the
outcome of the 2009 Bundestag election: incumbent Chancellor Angela Merkel
would still have been able to form a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition government, albeit
with a parliamentary majority cut in half (from 332-290 to 346-325) when
compared to the actual election
outcome.
|